POLITASPORTS

We can only hope that this game contains more drama, nail-biting, and heroics than the W1ILDCARD last night. That game was decided in the bottom of the first when it was clearly evident to everyone but Aaron Buffoone that Cole did not have even mediocre stuff. MLB had to be over-joyed with the four teams that made it, historically they are the most important teams in baseball and with the largest, most loyal fan bases. Until MLB decided to move Brooklyn and the Giants out west, St. Louis for many many years was the only team past the Mississippi River. Developing a loyal listening base on radio that constituted everything West, Southwest, and Northwest of Cincinnati, OH, save Chicago. Their market still commands one of the largest geographical, if not populous, areas of any pro sports teams. Missouri, Iowa, Southern Illinois, Arkansas, Kansas (barring a sliver of Royals fans), Nebraska, Oklahoma, and parts of eastern Kentucky and Tennessee. This support goes back generations being eroded only slightly by MLB team and westward expansion. According to “seatgeek” St. Louis had the highest percentage of “out of market” fans with 48.7% of their entire fan base not being from their regional market. Adding in LA, NY, and Boston you have 2 of the top TV markets in the country. Tuesday’s game was a let down from a competition perspective, but I’m sure the Nielsen ratings, especially at first pitch were nice for MLB and ESPN. Tonight pits one of the first teams to reach the west coast and break up the Cardinals western monopoly and largest TV market in America vs a very loyal Red Bird base that has alcoves throughout the South, Northwest, West, and Midwest of the United States. It should be a ratings bonanza. Here’s hoping it is a heart beat, blood pressure rising affair as well.

The Dodgers and the Cardinals have playoff history. Quite recent (in baseball terms) playoff history. They first met in 1985 when the Cards overcame an 0-2 series deficit to win in 6 and go on to lose the i-70 World Series to the Royals. The next meeting took place nearly 20 years later in 2004, they met again in ’09, and then in consecutive years 2013 & 14. The only series the Dodgers won was the 2009 NLDS that the Dodgers swept in 3 games. In most of these matchups the Cardinals were the underdog as they will be again tonight. The Cardinals will be facing Max Scherzer, maybe the most dominant pitcher in the game today. He joined the Dodgers mid-season and has been on a tear; 7-0, under 2 ERA, and multiple double digit strike out games. Even if the Dodgers hadn’t won more than 100 games and weren’t the defending Champs, a one game series vs Scherzer would almost certainly put them in the “favorite” category. As it stands, the Cardinals are the ones that needed a record breaking September surge to make it into the one game W1LDCARD going 22-7 in the month including a 17 game win streak to capture the 2nd W1LDCARD. The Dodgers meanwhile battled the Giants all season for the best record in baseball and the NL West crown finishing one game back with 106 wins. On paper this isn’t even a contest. In 2013 the Cardinals faced 2 CY Young winners at the tops of their games in Kershaw and Greinke, but managed to squeak by them in both games 1 & 2 and then destroyed Kershaw in game 6 plating 7 runs off him en route to a 9-0 series clinching victory. The Birds followed that up the next year in game 1 of the NLDS rocking Kershaw for 5 runs in the 7th inning going on to win 10-9. The Cards have a history of getting to great Dodger pitchers in the playoffs, will Scherzer be another feather in their pitcher killing cap? The Cardinals own a 4-1 series record vs LA, but this is a game, not a series. If Scherzer is throwing lasers, the Birds may come up losers.

The keys for the Cards is runs. My bold prediction is the team with the most runs wins. If we’re breaking down this game the Dodgers edge out the Cards in almost every category from lineup to bullpen and starting pitching. Wainwright has thrown some post season gems, but at 40 years old, can he come up with another performance reminiscent of his younger days? The Yankees started Cole despite some bad outings to end the season, it proved disastrous. Scherzer too ended the season with his two worst performances since joining the Dodgers, will that trend continue? The Cardinals lineup has some danger areas for Scherzer; if Goldschmidt, Arenado, and the hot O’Neill can get on base, the Cards have the advantage in the bottom of their order with Sosa and Bader playing well right now. The 6,7,& 8 positions may be the one advantage this Red Bird team has against the Dodgers. If the top of the order gives them some RBI opportunities, this could be what determines who advances to face the Giants. The bottom of the Dodgers order shouldn’t pose much of a threat, unless Pujols decides to have one early 2000’s style game verses his old team. All this means nothing however if Scherzer is on his game. Prime Ted Williams would struggle to get a hit off him.

I believe the September run was no fluke. I think the Birds will continue their hot play and upset the Dodgers tonight in LA. St. Louis has momentum and belief on their side that would take a game or two to overcome. If this was an actual series, I wouldn’t pick the Cardinals, but they would probably start up 1 or 2-0 before succumbing to the Dodgers’ superior pitching and lineup. In an NFL style one n done? Bring on San Fran, it’ll be a treat.