POLITASPORTS

The idea that the #Houston #Texans would trade Deshaun Watson is, on principal, absurd. No team has EVER traded away a truly franchise QB. I believe Houston will work it out w/ Deshaun, but for amusement and as a LIFE LONG #Finsfan I will indulge myself with the possibility.

I do not believe the Dolphins should go all-out to procure Watson’s services. I’ve read countless op-eds stating 3 or 4 1st round picks is the starting point for a discussion. Again, this evaluation is the reason no franchise has traded a young, proven, franchise QB. Most are looking at #HershelWalker or #EricDickerson as precedence. It makes sense, both were young, proven, franchise RBs in an era when RBs were the QBs of the day. Dickerson was moved in ’87, as compensation the #Rams received 6 picks (3 1st rounders) and two RBs. Two years later the #Cowboys swindled the #Vikings for 6 picks (3 1st rounders) and 5 players. Again, this is a time when RBs ruled the roost and the Dickerson trade two years prior set the market. History proved this was a “bridge too far” as Walker did not live up to the price the Vikings paid. Most talking heads cherry pick these two extremes as the cemented value of a young franchise player when discussing Watson’s trade value. They’re over-looking a couple obvious omissions when presenting trade scenarios for the Texans.

1. No-Trade Clauses. Dickerson didn’t have one. Walker had trade-veto written into his contract; however, pre-salary cap, the Cowboys were able to offer him a “severance package” to agree to the trade (the Cowboys basically bought out his clause). Watson has a no-trade clause and Houston can’t unilaterally dump him without his willingness to join a new team.
2. They ignore the value of draft picks. If we use two lopsided trades to assign current value to “franchise players” we must also use historic precedence to ascertain pick value. Ten years after the Walker trade, was the #RickyWilliams trade. The #NewOrleansSaints traded 8 picks (2 1st rounders) to move up to #5 for the chance to draft Ricky Williams. Using this same logic, we know a top 5 pick is worth at minimum 2 1st round picks. How much does the value increase for a top 3, top 2, or #1 pick?

No-trade clauses decrease trade value. No question. If you don’t know your player will accept the trade, how can you negotiate? If your limited to one or two potential buyers, how can you obtain the same value without demand from 31 teams? I realize no player ever gets attention from every team, the #KansasCityChiefs have no need for a QB. However, when you limit your customer base to 1 or 2 people, you can not generate the type of demand that would require 2, 3, or 4 first round picks.

I would love the Deshaun Watson to be a Dolphin, but not at the cost of their future. As we look back on history to establish precedence, lets look at the Dolphins own history. #DanMarino avg over 10 wins per season over the course of his NFL career often being the only weapon on the offensive side of the ball. Marino had 1 thousand yard RB in his entire 16 year career, and it was his last or 2nd to last season in the league. Watson, as amazing as his stats were this past season, could not deliver wins (hence the Dolphins having the #3 pick in the 2021 draft). Yes, I understand the team was terrible (defense ranked in the bottom 1/3), but 4 wins still seems low. Eight of their 12 losses were one score games. Watson couldn’t steal any of those games? I say this with the firm belief that the Fins should go after Watson if he is available, but only if the price is right.

With all due respect (which means I can now say anything I want) to other writers and analysts, the Dolphins should not give up 3 1st round draft picks. They can’t. To suggest the Dolphins give up, what would be essentially 3 (not including Tua) 1st round picks, borders on insanity. The dolphins should offer Tua plus their 18th pick and possibly a 3rd or conditional 2nd round pick. This is the maximum they should consider, if the cost demand is higher, they NEED to #walkaway. Draft offensive talent to give Tua a real chance to show his ceiling and #carryon. As discussed above, Tua is a top five pick, that alone, is worth 2 1st round picks, plus the #18 gives the Texans the 3 1st round value they crave. Including Tua (which any trade would have to), plus their #3, plus their #18, in effect gives the Texans (per established value) 5 1st round picks. This as Minnesota and New Orleans can attest, is a franchise killer. If we believe the leaks coming from Houston, Deshaun has 2 preferred destinations. If the #Jets can beat the offer of Tua plus #18 and a 3rd Round pick, offer the conditional 2nd round pick. I don’t see the Jets putting together a better package. They have the #2 this year, but after #TrevorLawrence their isn’t another “sure thing” QB in this year’s draft. Houston would then have to reach at #2 for a QB that may or may not pan out, or trade down for more draft stock. The Dolphins package gives them back a QB that many had #1 pre-injury, that has proven some degree of NFL talent, and a complete offseason as well as another year’s recovery should only bolster Tua’s value.

If the Jets over-reach and trade away their future for Watson, kindergarten math says the Dolphins need to get up and leave the table. Tua is going to get better. He showed enough last year to believe he can lead a team, not just manage a team, deep into the playoffs if the Dolphins put some firepower around him. His completion %, ball safety, and arm strength are there, now work on his reads, reaction time, and pocket movement. The Fins need to use the #3 on the best WR available and then, depending on what they do in free agency, use the #18 on either a RB (if not addressed through FA) or the best WR available. Strengthen the D-line after that and then the O-line. Watson would be great, especially if #Miami still has the draft capital to get Smith or Chase catching passes. If not, I would still like their chances against most of the AFC with Tua and some talent around him.